Impacts of climate variability on livestock population dynamics and breed distribution patterns in selected districts of Western Amhara, Ethiopia

Abstract

Summary: Climate change affects the livestock populations. As temperature increases, the rainfall distribution patterns shifts. These indirectly change the ecosystems like changes in crop yield, alter the distribution of animal diseases, geographically restriction of rare breed populations and increased competition for resources. Therefore, the objective of the study was to quantify impacts of climate variability on livestock population dynamics and breed distribution patterns. The study was conducted in Gondar Zuria, Farta and Bahir Dar Zuria districts. The sites were selected based on agro-ecology and livestock distribution potential. Data were collected through desk reviews of different documents and studies, focused group discussions, key informants interviews and different projection models. The results revealed that 70 percent of respondents believed that the trends of livestock breed distribution varied from year to year and from agro-ecology to agro-ecology. The number of cattle and equines are decreasing from year to year due to climate variability. Particularly, the crossbred cattle population decreased in 1998, 2002 and 2008 due to shortage of rainfall, increments of temperature and feed shortage. A correlation analysis was used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics and breed distribution. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = −0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = −0. 512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate variability. Whereas goats were having positive relationship (r = 0.345, P < 0.001). As the average maximum temperature steadily increases, the population dynamics of ruminant livestock fluctuated after the year 1996. About 92.2, 78 and 83.3 percent respondents in Farta, Gondar Zuria and Bahir Dar Zuria districts, respectively, stated that there is a fluctuation in amount of rainfall distribution during the main rainy seasons. About 84.5 percent of respondent of the three districts also believed that climate change made variation in rainfall distribution. About 52 percent of the respondents also suggested that if livestock is to be protected from climate change and related effects, changing the farming system with appropriate breed is important and can be achieved with the zero-grazing system. The farmers also recommended with stocking climate change adaptive and productive breeds. In conclusion, climate variability affected livestock population dynamics and breed distribution pattern negatively.