Social distance integrated gravity model for evacuation destination choice

Abstract

Evacuation is an effective and commonly taken strategy to minimize death and injuries from an incoming hurricane. For decades, interdisciplinary research has contributed to a better understanding of evacuation behavior. Evacuation destination choice modeling is an essential step for hurricane evacuation transportation planning. Multiple factors are identified associated with evacuation destination choices, in which long-term social factors have been found essential, yet neglected, in most studies due to difficulty in data collection. This study utilized long-term human movement records retrieved from Twitter to (1) reinforce the importance of social factors in evacuation destination choices, (2) quantify individual-level familiarity measurement and its relationship with an individual’s destination choice, (3) develop a big data approach for aggregated county-level social distance measurement, and (4) demonstrate how gravity models can be improved by including both social distance and physical distance for evacuation destination choice modeling.