Forecasting of COVID-19 epidemic size in four high hitting nations (USA, Brazil, India and Russia) by Fb-Prophet machine learning model
Open Access
- 10 December 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Emerald in Applied Computing and Informatics
Abstract
Purpose: As of July 30, 2020, more than 17 million novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were registered including 671,500 deaths. Yet, there is no immediate medicine or vaccination for control this dangerous pandemic and researchers are trying to implement mathematical or time series epidemic models to predict the disease severity with national wide data. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the authors considered COVID-19 daily infection data four most COVID-19 affected nations (such as the USA, Brazil, India and Russia) to conduct 60-day forecasting of total infections. To do that, the authors adopted a machine learning (ML) model called Fb-Prophet and the results confirmed that the total number of confirmed cases in four countries till the end of July were collected and projections were made by employing Prophet logistic growth model. Findings: Results highlighted that by late September, the estimated outbreak can reach 7.56, 4.65, 3.01 and 1.22 million cases in the USA, Brazil, India and Russia, respectively. The authors found some underestimation and overestimation of daily cases, and the linear model of actual vs predicted cases found a p-value (R2 value of 0.995. Originality/value: In this paper, the authors adopted the Fb-Prophet ML model because it can predict the epidemic trend and derive an epidemic curve.Keywords
This publication has 18 references indexed in Scilit:
- SARS-CoV-2 epidemic calculation in Italy by SEIR compartmental modelsApplied Computing and Informatics, 2020
- COVID-19: A Comparison of Time Series Methods to Forecast Percentage of Active Cases per PopulationApplied Sciences, 2020
- Corona Virus - SARS-CoV-2: An Insight to Another way of Natural DisasterEAI Endorsed Transactions on Pervasive Health and Technology, 2020
- COVID-19 outbreak reproduction number estimations and forecasting in Marche, ItalyInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2020
- COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approachJournal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection, 2020
- Investigating the cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China using dynamic statistical techniquesHeliyon, 2020
- Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERSInfection, Genetics and Evolution, 2020
- Corona Epidemic in Indian context: Predictive Mathematical ModellingPublished by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory ,2020
- Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisalBMJ, 2020
- The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreakJournal of Autoimmunity, 2020