Forecasting of COVID-19 epidemic size in four high hitting nations (USA, Brazil, India and Russia) by Fb-Prophet machine learning model

Abstract

Purpose: As of July 30, 2020, more than 17 million novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were registered including 671,500 deaths. Yet, there is no immediate medicine or vaccination for control this dangerous pandemic and researchers are trying to implement mathematical or time series epidemic models to predict the disease severity with national wide data. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the authors considered COVID-19 daily infection data four most COVID-19 affected nations (such as the USA, Brazil, India and Russia) to conduct 60-day forecasting of total infections. To do that, the authors adopted a machine learning (ML) model called Fb-Prophet and the results confirmed that the total number of confirmed cases in four countries till the end of July were collected and projections were made by employing Prophet logistic growth model. Findings: Results highlighted that by late September, the estimated outbreak can reach 7.56, 4.65, 3.01 and 1.22 million cases in the USA, Brazil, India and Russia, respectively. The authors found some underestimation and overestimation of daily cases, and the linear model of actual vs predicted cases found a p-value (R2 value of 0.995. Originality/value: In this paper, the authors adopted the Fb-Prophet ML model because it can predict the epidemic trend and derive an epidemic curve.