Study on the Relationship between Urban Economic Development and Industrial Pollution Discharge in Jiangsu Province

Abstract

城市经济发展伴随着工业排污的变化，探究二者之间的关系可以为未来的城市发展道路指明方向。以江苏省城市2008~2018年的经济发展与工业排污变化为研究对象，在经济–工业排污耦合分区的基础上选取四个城市拟合城市工业排污EKC曲线、分析脱钩状态并探讨工业污染物排放的驱动因素。结果表明：1) 苏州、南京环境指标EKC曲线呈倒U型，其余城市基本满足N型和倒N型，四个城市环境指标变化出现拐点时间均早于模型预测时间；不同耦合度城市的EKC曲线呈现不同的形态。2) 南京工业污染物常年脱钩状态明显，苏州、泰州和徐州自2012年开始脱钩状态上升，其中工业固废脱钩状态波动变化，不同时间差异较大；3) 技术进步是苏州市工业污染物排放变化的重要驱动因子｡ The development of urban economy is accompanied by the change of industrial emission and ex-ploring the relationship between them can point out the direction of future urban development. Taking the economic development and the change of industrial pollutant discharge in Jiangsu province from 2008 to 2018 as the research object, on the basis of the coupling zone of economic and industrial pollutant discharge, four cities were selected to fit the EKC curve of urban industrial pollutant discharge, analyze the decoupling state and discuss the driving factors of industrial pol-lutant discharge. The results show that: 1) the EKC curve of Suzhou and Nanjing shows an inverted U-shape, while the other cities basically meet the N-shape and inverted N-shape. The inflection point of the changes of environmental indicators in the four cities is earlier than the model pre-dicted time. The EKC curve of cities with different degree of coupling presents different forms. 2) The decoupling of industrial pollutants is obvious all the year round in Nanjing. The decoupling of Suzhou, Taizhou and Xuzhou has been on the rise since 2012, and the decoupling of industrial solid waste fluctuates greatly in different times. 3) Technological progress is an important driving factor for the change of industrial pollutant discharge in Suzhou.