Lockdown Effect on COVID-19 Incidence and Death: Iran Experience

Abstract

Background: Countries are trying several policy options for decreasing the incidence and burden of the COVID-19. One of these strategies is a lockdown, complete closure, to reduce the risk of distributing disease via social interactions. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a three-week lockdown on the mortality and morbidity of the COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: Official daily data on COVID-19 incidence and death reported on the COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO) were extracted from September 1, 2020, to January 14, 2021. Data were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis via STATA 14 software. Results: Lockdown resulted in a significant reduction in the daily death from Covid-19 in the short-term (β=-139, P<0.01) and in the long-term (β=-12, P<0.01). Moreover, lockdown in the short-term insignificantly (β=-21.58, P=0.969), and in the long-term significantly (β=-317.31, P<0.01) reduced the Covid-19 daily incidence. Discussion: The results showed that the lockdown has a significant effect on incidence and death numbers. Therefore, it could be a suitable short-term strategy for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, its negative effects on households and businesses should be considered.