Identification of today’s and tomorrow’s mobility patterns in the Rhenish coal-mining area

Abstract

This article deals with the development of the mobility sector in a very specific area in Germany. The Rhenish coal-mining area has to tackle an ongoing structural change. With the phase-out of lignite-based power generation, (infra-) structural changes and further resulting challenges will arise in the area between Aachen and Cologne in the coming years and decades. Within the framework of the field of action “Mobility” in the Rhenish coal-mining area, the DAZWISCHEN (In Between) (“As of March 17, 2023 the project listed on its website www.zukunftsstadt-stadtlandplus.de/dazwischen-english.html”) is investigating the current spatio-structural state as well as the possibilities for quantitative modelling of individual indicators up to the year 2040. In this article, “mobility” is understood as the spatial change in the location of people and households in daily life using different means of transport. Against this background, the modal share is considered as the central parameter. This describes the distribution of transport demand among different means of transport. Based on the status quo of the current mobility behaviour of the population in the Rhenish coal-mining area, future scenarios show which measures can be used to reduce CO₂ emissions in transport in order to achieve the Paris climate targets. The results can show local decision-makers in the Rhenish coal-mining area which measures are necessary to achieve this.