Integrated mapping of water-related disasters using the analytical hierarchy process under land use change and climate change issues in Laos

Abstract

In the past few decades, various natural hazards have occurred in Laos. To lower the consequences and losses caused by hazardous events, it is important to understand the magnitude of each hazard and the potential impact area. The main objective of this study was to propose a new approach to integrating hazard maps to detect hazardous areas on a national scale, for which area-limited data are available. The integrated hazard maps were based on a merging of five hazard maps: floods, land use changes, landslides, climate change impacts on floods, and climate change impacts on landslides. The integrated hazard map consists of six maps under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and two time periods (near future and far future). The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a tool to combine the different hazard maps into an integrated hazard map. From the results, comparing the increase in the very high hazard area between the integrated hazard maps of the far future under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, Khammouan Province has the highest increase (16.45 %). Additionally, the very high hazard area in Khammouan Province increased by approximately 12.47 % between the integrated hazard maps under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the far future. The integrated hazard maps can pinpoint the dangerous area through the whole country, and the map can be used as primary data for selected future development areas. There are some limitations of the AHP methodology, which supposes linear independence of alternatives and criteria.