Modeling of Tuberculosis Case In Central Java 2018 With Three Knot Point

Abstract

Tuberculosis is a contagious disease caused by infection with the bacteria Mycobacterium Tuberculosis or known as Acid-Resistant Bacteria (BTA). Central Java is one of the provinces that has a high number of tubuerculosis cases in Indonesia. In 2018, Central Java was in second place after West Java in the highest number of Tuberculosis cases in Indonesia with the number of Tuberculosis cases of all types of 67,941 cases. Many variables can affect the number of TB cases. Therefore, a study was conducted in the form of modeling to determine the variables that affect the number of tuberculosis cases in Central Java. Based on data obtained from the Central Java Provincial Health Office in 2018, it shows that the pattern between the number of tuberculosis cases and the variables that are thought to influence it is not linearly related, then a spline regression approach is carried out. The results of this study indicate that the best spline regression model is to use three point knots with significant variables, namely population density and malnutrition. The value of 𝑅2 obtained is 54.6%.