Additive prognostic value of preoperative plasma glucose concentrations in calves undergoing abdominal surgery

Abstract

Surgical abdominal emergencies in calves are associated with a guarded prognosis, especially if neonates are affected. Because hypoglycemia has been associated with sepsis and endotoxemia, this study aimed to assess the prognostic relevance of preoperative plasma glucose concentrations (GLUC) in calves requiring surgery for an acute abdominal disorder. For this purpose, data from retrospective and prospective case series were analyzed, consisting of 586 and 83 hospitalized calves, respectively. The outcomes of calves were evaluated until hospital discharge (both study populations) and for 3 mo following discharge by a phone call to the farmer (prospective study population). For the retrospective study population, the overall survival rate was 31.2%. Calves with a negative outcome (NO) had significantly lower median GLUC (4.3 mmol/L) than calves with a positive outcome (PO; 5.0 mmol/L). The survival rates of calves with GLUC <2.4 mmol/L and 2.4 to 3.1 mmol/L were 3.6 and 8.3%, respectively. The inclusion of GLUC improved a previous prognostic model based on plasma l-lactate concentration and age. The resulting analyses indicated that NO was associated with low age (8.84 mmol/L), and GLUC <4.4 mmol/L (age 7-20 d) and <3.3 mmol/L (age ≥21 d), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.76-0.83) and the resulting sensitivity and specificity for NO at the optimal probability cut-point of 0.69 were 66.7 and 85.8%, respectively. For the prospective study population, the established model had sensitivity and specificity for predicting NO after 3 mo (proportion 24%) of 61.9 and 85%, respectively. In both study populations, hypoglycemia was significantly associated with intraoperative evidence of a septic process within the abdominal cavity. The present analyses show that hypoglycemia was highly indicative of a poor prognosis and serious intraoperative findings such as peritonitis. Determination of GLUC should therefore be part of the diagnostic work-up in calves suffering from an acute abdominal emergency.