Cheating at Craps
Published: 17 May 2021
ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review , Volume 48, pp 53-61; https://doi.org/10.1145/3466826.3466845
Abstract: Craps is a simple dice game that is popular in casinos around the world. While the rules for Craps, and its mathematical analysis, are reasonably straightforward, this paper instead focuses on the best ways to cheat at Craps, by using loaded (biased) dice. We use both analytical modeling and simulation modeling to study this intriguing dice game. Our modeling results show that biasing a die away from the value 1 or towards the value 5 lead to the best (and least detectable) cheating strategies, and that modest bias on two loaded dice can increase the winning probability above 50%. Our Monte Carlo simulation results provide validation for our analytical model, and also facilitate the quantitative evaluation of other scenarios, such as heterogeneous or correlated dice.
Keywords: modeling / cheat / Craps / dice / game / straightforward / mathematical / scenarios / intriguing / die
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