基于MISOHRM模型的非一致性洪水频率计算方法及应用II： 西江中游水文要素时空变异规律 Algorithm and Application of Inconsistent Flood Frequency Based on the MISOHRM Model (II): Temporal and Spatial Alteration Analysis

Abstract

西江中游由于缺乏湖泊对洪水的调蓄，加之防洪堤不断地加高加固引起洪水归槽，加强了洪水遭遇效应，导致洪水发生的频率和强度发生变化。为了解西江中游水文要素变异的驱动力和时空变异规律，为多输入单输出水文相关模型(MISOHRM)的建立及非一致性洪水频率计算方法提供基础依据，本文利用1958~2007年西江中游七个水文站两个区间的水文要素序列，采用水文变异诊断系统对各要素进行变异分析。结果显示西江中游干流上的武宣、大湟江口和梧州站的洪峰流量序列关系密切，变异点也较为一致；而支流上的站点间以及站点和区间之间联系程度不紧密。 With the higher and harder levees and no lakes to storage the flood at the middle Xi River, the en-counter and return to main channel of flood were strengthened and the frequency and intensity of flood were changed. Because of the basic function of hydrological elements alteration analysis to the MISOHRM model and inconsistent flood frequency algorithm, with the hydrological series of 7 hydrological stations at the middle Xi River from the year of 1958 to 2007, the hydrological alteration diagnosis system was used to analyze the alteration regulation. The results show that, the relationship of the Wuxuan, Wuzhou and Da-huangjiangkou stations in the main stream is close and consistent, but the relationship between stations and regions in the tributary are not apparent. </p