Impact of Radar Reflectivity and Lightning Data Assimilation on the Rainfall Forecast and Predictability of a Summer Convective Thunderstorm in Southern Italy
Open Access
- 26 July 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by MDPI AG in Atmosphere
- Vol. 12 (8), 958
- https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080958
Abstract
Heavy and localized summer events are very hard to predict and, at the same time, potentially dangerous for people and properties. This paper focuses on an event occurred on 15 July 2020 in Palermo, the largest city of Sicily, causing about 120 mm of rainfall in 3 h. The aim is to investigate the event predictability and a potential way to improve the precipitation forecast. To reach this aim, lightning (LDA) and radar reflectivity data assimilation (RDA) was applied. LDA was able to trigger deep convection over Palermo, with high precision, whereas the RDA had a key role in the prediction of the amount of rainfall. The simultaneous assimilation of both data sources gave the best results. An alert for a moderate–intense forecast could have been issued one hour and a half before the storm developed over the city, even if predicting only half of the total rainfall. A satisfactory prediction of the amount of rainfall could have been issued at 14:30 UTC, when precipitation was already affecting the city. Although the study is centered on a single event, it highlights the need for rapidly updated forecast cycles with data assimilation at the local scale, for a better prediction of similar events.Funding Information
- Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri (agreement between the Italian Department of Civil Protection and ISAC-CNR)
This publication has 78 references indexed in Scilit:
- The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021
- Investigating 3D and 4D Variational Rapid-Update-Cycling Assimilation of Weather Radar Reflectivity for a Flash Flood Event in Central ItalyNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2021
- DRIHM(2US): An e-Science Environment for Hydrometeorological Research on High-Impact Weather EventsBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017
- Triggering and evolution of a deep convective system in the Mediterranean Sea: modelling and observations at a very fine scaleQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2017
- Convective initiation and maintenance processes of two back‐building mesoscale convective systems leading to heavy precipitation events in Southern Italy during HyMeX IOP 13Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2016
- Numerical simulations of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with the WRF model: A verification exercise using different approachesAtmospheric Research, 2015
- Use of NWP for Nowcasting Convective Precipitation: Recent Progress and ChallengesBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014
- Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods within the framework of the HYMEX projectNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013
- Convective-Scale Warn-on-Forecast SystemBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009
- Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting: Report of the Eighth Prospectus Development Team, U.S. Weather Research ProgramBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998