Is this essential for Japan to changes its LNG import policy? Some evidence of the OPEC crude oil price shocks
Published: 15 April 2020
Economics, Management and Sustainability , Volume 5, pp 29-41; doi:10.14254/jems.2020.5-1.3
Abstract: In this study, Japan's LNG import contracts are discussed. Given the importance that these contracts are oil-indexation, the impact of crude oil price volatility (emphasizing OPEC oil basket) on LNG prices was studied using a structural VAR model from January 1997 to October 2017. Also, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to separate positive and negative shocks to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on LNG prices. The results showed that the relationship between LNG and crude oil prices has increased over time and that the effect of price shocks was asymmetric so that the impact of positive shocks was more lasting and more significant than negative shocks. This imbalance indicates that the basic oil contracting mechanism generally works to secure sellers' rights. So Japan needs to reform its contracts. Looking at gas sales contracts elsewhere in the world, it seems that the best alternative to current contracts would be the formation of an LNG hub in the North and East Asian region with the focus on Japan or Singapore.
Keywords: model / Japan / LNG / shocks / structural / Contracts / OPEC / oil price
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