Prognostic Utility of Tumor Stage versus American Thyroid Association Risk Class in Thyroid Cancer

Abstract

To evaluate the prognostic strengths of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging and American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk classification in well-differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), and their implications in guiding medical decision-making and epidemiological study designs. The 2004-2017 National Cancer Database was queried for DTC patients. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) and Kaplan-Meier analyses modeled patient mortality and overall survival, respectively. Each CPH model was evaluated by its concordance index, measure of explained randomness (MER), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Overall, 134,226 patients were analyzed, with an average age of 48.1±15.1 years (76.9% female). Univariate CPH models using AJCC staging demonstrated higher concordance indices, MERs, and AUCs than those using ATA risk classification (all p4 and 7.603x10⁴, respectively. AJCC stage I tumors were associated with greater overall survival than those classified as ATA low risk, while AJCC stages II-III and stage IV tumors demonstrated worse survival than ATA intermediate- and high-risk tumors, respectively (all p<0.001). AJCC staging may be a more predictive system for patient survival than ATA risk. The prognostic utility of these two systems converges when additional demographic and clinical factors are considered. AJCC staging was found to classify patients across a wider range of survival patterns than the ATA risk stratification system.