Global ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 2: Algorithm validation

Abstract

At present the lightning flash density is a key input parameter for assessing the risk of occurrence of a lightning strike in a particular region of interest. Since it is known that flashes tend to have more than one ground termination point on average, the use of ground strike point densities as opposed to flash densities is more appropriate. Lightning location systems (LLSs) do not directly provide ground strike point densities. However, ingesting their observations into an algorithm that groups strokes into respective ground strike points results in the sought-after density value. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of three distinct ground strike point algorithms to correctly determine the observed ground-truth strike points. The output of the algorithms is tested against a large set of ground-truth observations taken from different regions around the world, including Austria, Brazil, France, Spain, South Africa and the United States of America. These observations are linked to the observations made by a local LLS in order to retrieve the necessary parameters of each lightning discharge, which serve as input for the algorithms. Median values of the separation distance between the first stroke in the flash and subsequent ground strike points are found to vary between 1.3 and 2.75 km. It follows that all three of the algorithms perform well, with success rates of up to about 90 % to retrieve the correct type of the strokes in the flash, i.e., whether the stroke creates a new termination point or follows a pre-existing channel. The most important factor that influences the algorithms' performance is the accuracy by which the strokes are located by the LLS. Additionally, it is shown that the strokes' peak current plays an important role, whereby strokes with a larger absolute peak current have a higher probability of being correctly classified compared to the weaker strokes.