Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Predict Lightning-Caused Forest Fires in Mounting Areas
Open Access
- 27 September 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by MDPI AG in Forecasting
- Vol. 3 (4), 695-715
- https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3040043
Abstract
Forest fires from lightnings create a tense situation in various regions of states with forested areas. It is noted that in mountainous areas this is especially important in view of the geophysical processes of lightning activity. The aim of the study is to develop a deterministic-probabilistic approach to predicting forest fire danger due to lightning activity in mountainous regions. To develop a mathematical model, the main provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics, as well as the general theory of heat transfer, were used. The scientific novelty of the research is due to the complex use of probabilistic criteria and deterministic mathematical models of tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The paper presents probabilistic criteria for predicting forest fire danger, taking into account the lightning activity, meteorological data, and forest growth conditions, as well as deterministic mathematical models of ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by electric current of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The work uses synthetic data on the discharge parameters and characteristics of the forest-covered area, which correspond to the forest fire situation in the Republic of Altay and the Republic of Buryatia (Russian Federation). The dependences of the probability for occurrence of forest fires on various parameters have been obtained.Keywords
Funding Information
- Russian Foundation for Basic Researches (20-31-51001, 20-45-040012, 20-31-51001, 20-31-51001, 20-31-51001)
This publication has 35 references indexed in Scilit:
- Lightning-caused fires in Central Spain: Development of a probability model of occurrence for two Spanish regionsAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2012
- Lightning characteristics observed by a VLF/LF lightning detection network (LINET) in Brazil, Australia, Africa and GermanyAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2009
- Lightning, fire and longleaf pine: Using natural disturbance to guide managementForest Ecology and Management, 2008
- Lightning and precipitation relationship in summer thunderstorms: Case studies in the North Western Mediterranean regionAtmospheric Research, 2007
- BIOTIC AND ABIOTIC REGULATION OF LIGHTNING FIRE INITIATION IN THE MIXEDWOOD BOREAL FORESTEcology, 2006
- Lightning detection with 3‐D discrimination of intracloud and cloud‐to‐ground dischargesGeophysical Research Letters, 2004
- Spatial patterns of lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario, 1976–1998Ecological Modelling, 2003
- Information systems in support of wildland fire management decision making in CanadaComputers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2002
- Some aspects of the correlation between lightning and rain activities in thunderstormsAtmospheric Research, 2001
- On the relationship between cloud‐to‐ground lightning and convective rainfallJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 1998