New Search

Export article
Open Access

Predicting Futures Price And Contract Portfolios Using The ARIMA Model: A Case of Nigeria’s Bonny Light and Forcados

Arnold Adimabua Ojugo, Rume Elizabeth Yoro
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies , Volume 1, pp 237-248; doi:10.35877/454ri.qems139

Abstract: Market prediction has been the goal of many study as investors sought traded assets since the inception of the capital market. With each asset exchanged for money, investors seek to stay ahead the market trend in the hope of amassing profits. Businesses’ growth (rise/fall) is evident upon their response to market behaviour. Thus, accurate prediction of the market often offers as its reward, enlarged financial portfolio. Market participants thus, seek to manage the risks associated with asset prices and its volatility, which can be rippled with chaos and complex tasks arising from a demand-supply curve. We seek to model the Oil market and forecast its price direction supported with empirical evidence using ARIMA model to analyze inputs in search of an optimal solution. We adopt the OPEC model to: (a) predict spot/futures-prices, (b) investigate why previous prediction was poor and price plummeted, and (c) compares value(s) from Ojugo and Yoro (2020) and Ojugo and Allenotor (2017). Results shows demand-supply curve rise (and a price rise) even though the policies and trend in real life scenario is currently experiencing a price plummet.
Keywords: model / market / Price / ARIMA / optimal / investors / curve / rise / Plummet / Ojugo

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

Share this article

Click here to see the statistics on "Quantitative Economics and Management Studies" .
Back to Top Top