Population migration in the supporting regions of the Russian Arctic to improve international competitiveness of the Northern Sea Route

Abstract

The Russian Arctic regions have a significant geographical, historical, and economic connection with the Northern Sea Route (NSR); the successful implementation of Russia’s geo-political and geo-economic strategies in the Arctic is mainly dependent upon the socio-economic situation in these regions. Population migration is a determinant of the current and future labour potential of the supporting regions; compared to natural growth, it has been a key driver of population and an indicator of the quality of human resources. The research herein considered the factors and impacts of migration on the quality of human resources in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Russian population census data for 2002 and 2010, and statistical materials were analysed by age and migrant education to characterise the quality of human resources. To identify the causes of migration, the quantitative data analyses were supplemented with results from sociological studies and expert assessments. An index methodology was used to compare the quality of life and human capital development of the Arctic regions. Accordingly, most of the analysed Arctic regions showed high indicators of human development, which were higher than the national average in education, but significantly lower in longevity. Further, most of the Arctic regions occupied lower positions in Russian regional quality of life. It was concluded that the AZRF regions hold high quality of human capital; however, since high-quality living conditions are lacking, they serve as donors of human capital to other parts of the country. These regions would require external labour resources in the near future due to the planned large-scale projects for the development of the NSR, concurrent reduction and ageing of labour resources, and demand changes in the labour market. The government’s socio-economic policies would determine the scale, dynamics, and direction of migration, as well as their impact on the demographics and labour potential of the supporting regions of the NSR.