Potential geographic distribution of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae) in current and future conditions for Colombia

Abstract

In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work sought to estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A. albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. We found that, from their invasion of Colombia to the most recent years, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and Valle del Cauca being the departments with most of the records. Our ecological niche modelling for the currently suggests that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the Colombian continental surface up to 3000 m (p < 0.001) putting at risk at least 48 million of people that could be infected by the arboviruses that this species transmits. Additionally, by 2050 and 2070, under RCP 2.6 scenario, its distribution could cover to nearly 90% of continental extension up to 3100 m (≈55 million of people at risk), while under RCP 8.5 scenario, it could decrease below 60% of continental extension, but expand upward to 3200 m (< 38 million of people at risk). These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting. In Colombia, little is known about the Asian mosquito distribution, Aedes albopictus, potential vector of arbovirus in América. Therefore, this work searched to estimate its current and future geographical distribution (under the climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. We worked with models in MaxEnt, using A. albopictus occurrences and 8 bioclimatic variables. From its invasion to Colombia, this vector was reported in 15 departments until 1800 m. Our estimations for the currently suggest that this vector could be distributed in 96% of continental Colombia until 3000 m (≈48 million of people in infection risk). Also, for 2050 and 2070, under the RCP 2.6 scenario, its distribution could cover about near to 90% of continental Colombia until 3100 m (≈55 million of people in risk), while under RCP 8.5 scenario, could decrease below 60% of continental Colombia until 3200 m (<38 million of people in risk). In Colombia, the vigilance and vectorial control programs should focus its attention on this vector to avoid complications at the national public health level.