基于最严格的水资源总量控制目标约束，研究评估新疆地方系统(不含新疆生产建设兵团)农业灌溉水资源承载力。本文以2018年现状为基准，综合考虑农业用水在总用水量的占比、滴灌面积在总灌面积的占比、灌溉定额、灌溉水利用系数对灌溉水资源量的影响，运用水土平衡及系统工程优化评估灌溉水资源承载能力。结果显示：预期2035年农业用水总量由2018年386.20亿m3降至282.10亿m3，这一远景目标的实现伴随农业用水占比由91.8%降至74.7%，毛灌溉定额由7695 m3/hm2下降至5955 m3/hm2，滴灌面积占比由48.5%提升至86.2%，灌溉水利用系数由0.542提升至0.650，由此可承载极限总灌面积为488.15万hm2，比2018年减少灌溉面积13.52万hm2。分析结果说明，在十分有限的农业水资源总量控制条件下，在适宜范围内降低灌区灌溉定额，提升灌溉水利用系数和滴灌节水规模，是以水定地稳定总灌面积的重要保障。 Based on the most stringent water resources total amount control target constraints, the agricultural irrigation water resources carrying capacity of local systems (without Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps) in Xinjiang are studied and evaluated. Using 2018 as the benchmark, this paper comprehensively considers the effects of the proportion of agricultural water in total water consumption, the proportion of drip irrigation area in total irrigation area, irrigation quota and irrigation water utilization coefficient on irrigation water resources, and evaluates the carrying capacity of irrigation water resources by using water and soil balance and system engineering optimization. The results show that the total amount of water used for agriculture is expected to decrease from 38.620 billion m3 in 2018 to 28.210 billion m3 in 2035. The achievement of this long-term goal is accompanied by the decrease of agricultural water use from 91.8% to 74.7%, the decrease of gross irrigation quota from 7695 m3/hm2 to 5955 m3/hm2, the increase of drip irrigation area from 48.5% to 86.2%, and the increase of irrigation water use coefficient from 0.542 to 0.650. The ultimate carrying capacity of the total irrigated area is 4.881.5 million hm2, which is 135.2 million hm2 less than 2018. Analysis results show that under the condition of limited total amount of agricultural water resources, the irrigation quota can be reduced and the irrigation water use efficiency and water saving scale can be increased, which is an important guarantee to stabilize the total irrigation area with water.