Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany

Abstract

Background: Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 degrees C, with 1.5 degrees C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C. Methods: Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation. Results: In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 degrees C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 degrees C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, respectively. Conclusion: The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 degrees C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.