Traffic and freight flow predictions and effects of capacity expansion in the urban–port road interface: The case of a port city in Poland

Abstract

This paper elaborates on forecasts in the road traffic and freight flows in the urban–port transport system to quantify the effects of the freight traffic performance considering road capacity expansion in a port city in Poland. The urban–port transport system was broken down into a subsystem of roads that lead directly to the port transshipment areas and a subsystem of urban roads with mixed freight and passenger traffic. The research resulted in an elaborated long-term forecast of freight and traffic flows in the porttransshipmenturban road system. Also, the impact of capacity improvements in the local transport system on port-related freight traffic performance was quantified using an incremental calculus for transport performance for two options: with and without road capacity expansion. As investigated, an intervention will lead to a reduction in time of freight traffic trips, freight transports, and drivers working time as well as to decreased emissions of CO₂.