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Preliminary Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East

, Imad A. Aziz, Fuad W. Khdhr, Dler Fd Mahmood

Abstract: Up to April 9, 2020, 142490 cases have been confirmed as COVID-19 infection including 5705 associated deaths in the Middle East. Most of the countries, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia have imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. Using the available data from WHO webpage, up to 9 April 2020, we traced epidemic curves and estimated the basic reproduction number ( ) of COVID-19 through the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for the Middle East countries. Epidemic curves for Middle East countries and territory show similar trend as Iran, with a couple of weeks’ delay in time. In SIR model, ranged between 7.41 as in Turkey to lowest as 2.60 for Oman whereas basic reproduction number for Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip territory, and Cyprus were 4.13, 2.71, 3.39, 4.18, 4.45, 2.75, 2.60, 3.52, 3.35, 3.16, 4.99, 4.08, 2.89, and 4.05, respectively. This study indicates an important trend on an early outbreak of COVID-19 based on estimated for the Middle East countries, mean 3.76 for COVID-19, with median and interquartile range (IQR) in the Middle East.
Keywords: basic reproduction number / COVID / curves / Epidemic / SIR / Middle

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