Analysis on the Impact of “Belt and Road” Policy on Foreign Direct Investment
Abstract: 随着中国经济对外开放的程度不断扩大，大量FDI涌入中国，我国的开放政策在取得巨大成果的同时也面临着贸易格局多元化、交易规则不断演化的局面，“一带一路”倡议引导促进我国各省市向“一带一路”沿线国家实施对外开放政策及进行经济交流和贸易往来。本文基于2006年至2018年全国30个省份的面板数据，研究“一带一路”政策是否会影响外商直接投资区位选择的影响因素并分析“一带一路”政策涵盖的17个省份(除西藏)及未涵盖的13个省份(除香港、澳门、台湾)的影响外商直接投资的因素的差异。实证结果表明经济发展水平、基础设施水平、人力资本存量等因素对外商直接投资的影响为正，劳动力成本和城镇化率的影响为负；劳动力成本对沿线省份的负面影响要比未沿线省份的负面作用要大，公路运输效率较铁路运输效率对吸引外商直接投资的正面影响程度更大，研究为借助“一带一路”政策吸引高质量外资提供理论借鉴。 With the expansion of China’s economic opening to the outside world and the influx of FDI into China, China’s opening policy is facing the situation of diversification of trade pattern and the evolution of trade rules while making great achievements. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2018, this paper mainly studies whether the “Belt and Road” policy will affect the location choice of FDI, and analyzes the “Belt and Road” policy covers by comparing the differences in the factors affecting FDI in 17 provinces (except Tibet) and 13 provinces not covered (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). The empirical results show that the influence of economic development level, infrastructure level and human capital stock, is positive, and the influence of labor cost and urbanization rate is negative. The negative impact of labor costs on provinces along the Belt and Road is greater than other provinces. The road transport efficiency has a greater positive impact on attracting foreign direct investment than railway transport efficiency. The research provides theoretical reference for attracting high-quality foreign capital with the help of Belt and Road policy.
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