Projected timeline to achieve gender balance within the United States neurosurgical workforce exceeds 150 years: a National Plan and Provider Enumeration System analysis

Abstract

Despite incremental progress in the representation and proportion of women in the field of neurosurgery, female neurosurgeons still represent an overwhelming minority of the current US physician workforce. Prior research has predicted the timeline by which the proportion of female neurosurgery residents may reach that of males, but none have used the contemporary data involving the entire US neurosurgical workforce. The authors performed a retrospective analysis of the National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES) registry of all US neurosurgeons to determine changes in the proportions of women in neurosurgery across states, census divisions, and census regions between 2010 and 2020. A univariate linear regression was performed to assess historical growth, and then Holt-Winter forecasting was used to predict in what future year gender parity may be reached in this field. A majority of states, divisions, and regions have increased the proportion of female neurosurgeons from 2010. Given current growth rates, the authors found that female neurosurgeons will not reach the proportion of women in the overall medical workforce until 2177 (95% CI 2169–2186). Furthermore, they found that women in neurosurgery will not match their current proportion of the overall US population until 2267 (95% CI 2256–2279). Whereas many studies have focused on the overall increase of women in neurosurgery in the last decade, this one is the first to compare this growth in the context of the overall female physician workforce and the female US population. The results suggest a longer timeline for gender parity in neurosurgery than previous studies have suggested and should further catalyze the targeted recruitment of women into the field, an overhaul of current policies in place to support and develop the careers of women in neurosurgery, and increased self-reflection and behavioral change from the entire neurosurgery community.