Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns

Abstract

In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with coherent forcing (i.e. ERA5). First, we analyse the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: (1) sampling method, (2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver, (3) dependence metrics, and (4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify that hotspots of compound flooding potential are located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.