Risk factors for the flare of systemic lupus erythematosus and its influence on prognosis: a single-center retrospective analysis

Abstract

Objectives: To explore the risk factors for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flare and their impact on prognosis. Methods: The clinical characteristics, laboratory results, and treatment plans of 121 patients with SLE flare were retrospectively analyzed. Ninety-eight SLE outpatients with sustained remission during the same period were selected as controls. Logistic multivariate regression analysis was employed to screen for risk factors for SLE flare. Results: Infection, thrombocytopenia, arthritis, anti-nucleosome antibodies positive, anti-β2-glycoprotein I (IgG) antibodies positive, and patient’s self-discontinuation of medicine maintenance therapy might be risk factors for SLE flare. Patients who discontinued medicine maintenance therapy by themselves had a significantly higher rate of severe SLE flare than patients with regular medicine maintenance therapy (P = 0.033). The incidence of anemia associated with SLE (P = 0.001), serositis (P = 0.005), and pulmonary hypertension (P = 0.003) in patients who discontinued medicine maintenance therapy were significantly higher than patients with regular medicine maintenance therapy. SLE patients with regular medicine maintenance therapy for less than 3 years had a higher risk of pulmonary hypertension than those with regular medicine maintenance therapy longer than 3 years (P = 0.034). Conclusions: The accompanying thrombocytopenia, arthritis, anti-nucleosome antibodies positive and anti-β2-glycoprotein I (IgG) antibodies positive at the onset of SLE may affect the prognosis of SLE. Patient’s self-discontinuation of medicine maintenance therapy is the main cause of SLE flare, which may induce severe flare in SLE patients and lead to a significantly higher incidence of pulmonary hypertension.