Prediksi Luas Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan pada Tahun 1997-2005 Akibat Faktor Antropogenik Menggunakan Data CMIP5

Abstract

Forest and land fires are an annual local and national disaster that occurs in Indonesia.  Forest and land fires are influenced by two factors, are natural forcing and /or anthropogenic forcing (human activity). Human activity releases large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), oxidantrates, nitrogen dioxide (NOx) and particulates which act as sources of greenhouse warming that have been monitored by satellites in recent years. This study will examine the burn area of forest and land fires in recent decades due to the influence of anthropogenic factors in Kalimantan using two types of data groups to be analyzed, namely data without and with anthropogenic components. Analysis by utilizing output data from the CMIP5. This study uses a statistical approach to the technique of Random Forests (RF) to evaluate the contribution of climate and anthropogenic factors to the extent of forest and land fires in the Kalimantan region. General conditions of forest and land fires are based on observational data obtained from GFED data. The two highest areas that occurred in Kalimantan during the period 1997 to 2005 occurred in 1997 and 2002. According to the three models in 1997 and 2002 it was seen that anthropogenic factors had a more dominant influence on the extent of forest and land fires in Kalimantan. In 1997 and 2002 the extent of forest and land fires due to anthropogenic influences was positive (causing extensive forest and land fires to increase).