New Search

Export article
Open Access

Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2

KaiYuan Sun , Wei Wang, Lidong Gao, Yan Wang, Kaiwei Luo, LingShuang Ren, Zhifei Zhan, Xinghui Chen, Shanlu Zhao, Yiwei Huang, Qianlai Sun, Ziyan Liu, Maria Litvinova , Alessandro Vespignani , Marco Ajelli , Cecile Viboud , Hongjie Yu
Science ; doi:10.1126/science.abe2424

Abstract: A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, driven by demography, behavior and interventions. Based on detailed patient and contact tracing data in Hunan, China we find 80% of secondary infections traced back to 15% of SARS-CoV-2 primary infections, indicating substantial transmission heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions and is modulated by demographic and clinical factors. The lockdown period increases transmission risk in the family and households, while isolation and quarantine reduce risks across all types of contacts. The reconstructed infectiousness profile of a typical SARS-CoV-2 patient peaks just before symptom presentation. Modeling indicates SARS-CoV-2 control requires the synergistic efforts of case isolation, contact quarantine, and population-level interventions, owing to the specific transmission kinetics of this virus.
Keywords: Behavior / kinetics / virus / infectious / tracing / Contact / Sars Cov / heterogeneities

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

Share this article

Click here to see the statistics on "Science" .
References (55)
    Cited by 11 articles
      Back to Top Top