Modeling the probability of occurrence of events
- 7 July 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Statistical Methods in Medical Research
- Vol. 30 (8), 1976-1987
- https://doi.org/10.1177/09622802211022403
Abstract
This paper introduces the event-probability function, a measure of occurrence of an event of interest over time, defined as the instantaneous probability of an event at a given time point conditional on having survived until that point. Unlike the hazard function, the event-probability function is a proper probability. This paper describes properties and interpretation of the event-probability function, presents its connection with other popular functions, such as the hazard and survival functions, proposes practical flexible proportional-odds models for estimating conditional event-probabilities given covariates with possibly censored and truncated observations, discusses the theoretical and computational aspects of parameter estimation, and applies the proposed models for assessing mortality in patients with metastatic renal carcinoma from a randomized clinical trial.This publication has 12 references indexed in Scilit:
- Relative rates not relative risks: addressing a widespread misinterpretation of hazard ratiosAnnals of Epidemiology, 2017
- A regression method for modelling geometric ratesStatistical Methods in Medical Research, 2015
- stgenreg: AStataPackage for General Parametric Survival AnalysisJournal of Statistical Software, 2013
- Hazards and hazard ratiosBMJ, 2012
- Survival MethodsJournal of the American College of Cardiology, 2008
- Is treatment with interferon-α effective in all patients with metastatic renal carcinoma? A new approach to the investigation of interactionsBritish Journal of Cancer, 2004
- Flexible parametric proportional‐hazards and proportional‐odds models for censored survival data, with application to prognostic modelling and estimation of treatment effectsStatistics in Medicine, 2002
- Interferon-α and survival in metastatic renal carcinoma: early results of a randomised controlled trialThe Lancet, 1999
- Analysis of survival data by the proportional odds modelStatistics in Medicine, 1983
- Discrete-Time Methods for the Analysis of Event HistoriesSociological Methodology, 1982