Synchrony in population dynamics of juvenile Atlantic salmon: analyzing spatiotemporal variation and the influence of river flow and demography
- 1 May 2022
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Canadian Science Publishing in Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
- Vol. 79 (5), 782-794
- https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2021-0017
Abstract
Dispersal and shared environmental conditions can both synchronize the dynamics of local populations, but disentangling their relative influence on dynamics is challenging.We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the synchrony of a metapopulation of Atlantic salmon composed of 18 populations in Brittany, France, including a 24-year time-series of the abundances of juveniles. We estimated the spatial synchrony at a regional and local spatial scale over the study period. We found a strong regional synchrony despite spatio-temporal variability of local synchrony in the abundance of juveniles. We then explored the drivers of synchrony, including environmental conditions (aspects of river flow) and abundance of adult breeders. This revealed that summer low-flow conditions seemed to synchronize the abundances of juveniles more than the synchrony in the abundance of adult breeders, suggesting a Moran effect. Given that drought conditions are expected to become more common with climate change, our work highlights the potentially strong synchronizing effect of summer low-flow on the dynamics of local salmon populations and the benefits of considering synchrony at multiple scales.Keywords
This publication has 80 references indexed in Scilit:
- Changes in the genetic structure of Atlantic salmon populations over four decades reveal substantial impacts of stocking and potential resiliencyEcology and Evolution, 2013
- Determinants of hierarchical genetic structure in Atlantic salmon populations: environmental factors vs. anthropogenic influencesMolecular Ecology, 2011
- Weakened portfolio effect in a collapsed salmon population complexCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2011
- A dispersal-induced paradox: synchrony and stability in stochastic metapopulationsEcology Letters, 2011
- Estimating an homogeneous series of a population abundance indicator despite changes in data collection procedure: A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approachEcological Modelling, 2011
- Synchronization and portfolio performance of threatened salmonConservation Letters, 2010
- A review of the likely effects of climate change on anadromous Atlantic salmonSalmo salarand brown troutSalmo trutta, with particular reference to water temperature and flowJournal of Fish Biology, 2009
- Landscape genetics and hierarchical genetic structure in Atlantic salmon: the interaction of gene flow and local adaptationMolecular Ecology, 2008
- Spatial synchrony in population fluctuations: extending the Moran theorem to cope with spatially heterogeneous dynamicsOikos, 2006
- A review of local adaptation in Salmonidac, with particular reference to Pacific and Atlantic salmonAquaculture, 1991