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E-Learning’s “De Facto” Implementation Probabilities in Educational Sector: A Preliminary Estimation if Confinement Should Be Extended in Covid-19 Crisis Context

Semliko Fulbert Dossou
Journal of Public Administration and Governance , Volume 10, pp 122-135; doi:10.5296/jpag.v10i3.17509

Abstract: Background: Before the Covid-19 breakout, some debates' subjects were left hanging in the education area: the E-Learning integration. With the pandemic impact (making closed almost all schools in the same month), the debate gained again importance. Among the temporal Anti-Covid-19 measures adopted, was the replacement of classic education by distance-online education.Purpose: This article attempted a preliminary estimate related to the probabilities of E-learning’s ‘‘de facto’’ implementation in different countries groups of the world if the confinement should be extended in Covid-19 crisis context.Methods/Approach: The probabilistic method was adopted to analyze 143 countries including (49 High income, 40 upper-middle-income, 33 lower-middle-income, and 21 low-income economies). The main variables (related to E-learning), collected from official sources in the Covid-19 period were: Access-to-electricity, Access-to-Internet, Access-to-Multimedia-Devices (Personal-Computer, Tablet and/or Smartphone).Results: Results showed that the probabilities of E-learning's ''de facto'' implementation would be around 0.6502 in the world, 0.8731 in High-Incomes, 0.7075 in Upper-Middle-Incomes, 0.5272 in Lower-Middle-Incomes, and 0.2950 in Low-Income economies.Originality/value: (1) In the past, "suddenly closing almost all schools in the world" would be inadmissible. Everyone can henceforth believe in that eventuality after the experience with Covid-19. In this context, this research shows the need to reconsider E-learning or at least, a new hybrid education model as a "plan B" for future times. Thanks to technological integration, online and traditional education could go hand in hand, even after the Covid-19. (2) This study reminds the importance of speeding up the resolution of certain thorny (pending) problems such as access to energy and the development of educational infrastructure in certain regions of the world. The quality, performance and success of the educational component depend on it.
Keywords: model / Implementation / crisis / context / confinement / online / Facto / Middle Income / COVID

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