Comparative Analysis of Single Exponential Smoothing and Holt's Method for Quality of Hospital Services Forecasting in General Hospital

Abstract

The quality health service is one of the basic necessities of any person or customer. To predict the number of goods can be done in a way predicted. The comparison method of Single Exponential Smoothing and Holt's method is used to predict the accuracy of inpatient services will be back for the coming period. Single Exponential Smoothing the forecasting methods used for data stationary or data is relatively stable. Holt's method is used to test for a trend or data that has a tendency to increase or decrease in the long term. The outcome of this study is the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more precise than Holt's method because of the history of hospitalized patients who do not experience an increase or no trend. In addition, the percentage of error (the difference between the actual data with the forecast value) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) to calculate the forecast error obtained from the Single Exponential Smoothing method is smaller compared to Holt's method.