Estimation of Risk of Child Death and Average Children Ever Born

Abstract

Objectives: To understand the pattern of child death (death before their fifth birthday), in this study an attempt has been made to develop a probability model. Methods: Mortality especially child death is one of the important and interesting areas for population scientists. In this paper, an attempt has been made a probability model to study the pattern of child deaths and also try to estimate the average number of children ever born. The parameters involved in the model under consideration have been estimated with the method of moments. Findings: Some real data sets from NFHS are used for checking the suitability of the proposed model. The performance of proposed model is outstanding for the considered set of data. The risk of child death in Uttar Pradesh is estimated as 63 per thousand and the estimated number of children ever born is about 7 in the reproductive life of a female. In the urban area, the risk of child death and average children ever born is estimated lower than the estimate of rural area. We observed risk of child death and the average number of children ever born is decreasing over time. Novelty: The proposed model is competent to estimate the risk of child death and the average children ever born to a female through the distribution of number of child death. Keywords: Child Death; Average Children Ever Born; Probability Model; Marginal Probability; Method of Moment