COVID-19 cases prediction using regression and novel SSM model for non-converged countries
Open Access
- 29 April 2021
- journal article
- Published by Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia in Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education
- Vol. 3 (1), 74-81
- https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.asci137
Abstract
Anticipating the quantity of new associated or affirmed cases with novel coronavirus ailment 2019 (COVID-19) is critical in the counteraction and control of the COVID-19 flare-up. The new associated cases with COVID-19 information were gathered from 20 January 2020 to 21 July 2020. We filtered out the countries which are converging and used those for training the network. We utilized the SARIMAX, Linear regression model to anticipate new suspected COVID-19 cases for the countries which did not converge yet. We predict the curve of non-converged countries with the help of proposed Statistical SARIMAX model (SSM). We present new information investigation-based forecast results that can assist governments with planning their future activities and help clinical administrations to be more ready for what's to come. Our framework can foresee peak corona cases with an R-Squared value of 0.986 utilizing linear regression and fall of this pandemic at various levels for countries like India, US, and Brazil. We found that considering more countries for training degrades the prediction process as constraints vary from nation to nation. Thus, we expect that the outcomes referenced in this work will help individuals to better understand the possibilities of this pandemic.Keywords
This publication has 16 references indexed in Scilit:
- The date predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in SpainJournal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education, 2020
- COVID-19: The first documented coronavirus pandemic in historyBiomedical Journal, 2020
- Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: A data-driven analysisChaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 2020
- A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency periodInfectious Disease Modelling, 2020
- Modeling and forecasting of epidemic spreading: The case of Covid-19 and beyondChaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 2020
- Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020
- Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19PLOS ONE, 2020
- Prediction of Number of Cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Using Social Media Search IndexInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020
- CoronaTracker: World-wide COVID-19 Outbreak Data Analysis and PredictionPublished by WHO Press ,2020
- Comparison of ARIMA and Random Forest time series models for prediction of avian influenza H5N1 outbreaksBMC Bioinformatics, 2014