Interdependence between the stock market and the bond market in one country: evidence from the subprime crisis and the European debt crisis

Abstract

Background: Once a global financial crisis breaks out, the interdependence between different financial markets suddenly increases and leads to a significant contagion. Methods: With 39 countries used as samples, this paper analyzes the interdependence between the stock market and the government bond market during the crisis periods. Results: It proves that the investor focuses more on the safety of their portfolio so there is neither a flight from quality nor a positive spillover during a crisis period. When one market is safer than the other market in the same country, a flight to quality occurs between the two markets; however, when the two markets in one country are both risky, negative spillover appears between these two markets. Conclusions: This means a flight to quality from the stock market to the short-term government bond will occur more frequently than will occur from the stock market to the long-term government bond markets. In addition, a flight to quality always emerges in developed markets, while negative spillovers take place in emerging markets and in the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, referred to hereon as “PIIGS”) in the European Debt Crisis.